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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.