🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.